Autumn Budget 2026 predictions: what do we expect to see?

Last updated: 9 October 2026

The Autumn Budget 2026 will be delivered by Chancellor John Healey on Wednesday 28 October 2026, as confirmed by HM Treasury. Until then, nothing new is decided. Some changes are already set by earlier Budgets, and others are only rumours. This guide separates the two, so you can plan calmly rather than react to headlines.

When is the Autumn Budget 2026?

The Budget is on Wednesday 28 October 2026. The Chancellor confirmed the date on 31 July 2026 in a letter to the Treasury Select Committee. The Office for Budget Responsibility will publish its forecast the same day.

What is already confirmed before the Budget?

These changes were announced in earlier Budgets or since, and will happen whatever the Budget says.

• Income tax thresholds stay frozen. The Budget 2025 document confirms that income tax thresholds, and the matching National Insurance thresholds for employees, will stay at their current levels until April 2031. As pay rises, more of your income can fall into higher tax bands.
• Cash ISA limit changes from April 2027. HMRC confirms that the overall ISA allowance stays at £20,000, but from 6 April 2027 the most you can put into a cash ISA will be £12,000 if you are under 65. People aged 65 and over keep a £20,000 cash ISA limit.
• Pensions come into Inheritance Tax from April 2027. GOV.UK confirms that most unused pension funds and death benefits will count towards the value of an estate for Inheritance Tax for deaths on or after 6 April 2027.
• Higher tax on savings and dividends. The Budget 2025 document raises dividend tax rates by 2 percentage points from April 2026, and savings income tax rates by 2 points from April 2027.
• The Lifetime ISA is being replaced. A new First Time Buyer ISA, consulted on in summer 2026, will be offered in place of the Lifetime ISA once available. See our Autumn Budget 2025 guide to what it means for your money.
• Lower electricity bills this winter. GOV.UK confirms VAT has been removed from household electricity bills in Great Britain from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027.

What is being reported as possible in the Autumn Budget 2026?

These are rumours and expert predictions, not decisions. Each one comes from a named source, and none has been confirmed by the government.

• Capital Gains Tax. Rathbones (September 2026) reports speculation that Capital Gains Tax rates could be brought closer to income tax rates, and that the relief which resets gains on death could be removed. Which? reports calls within government for this alignment. Grant Thornton describes a change as “possible, but nothing has been confirmed”.
• The tax-free pension lump sum. Rathbones reports speculation that the current maximum tax-free lump sum of £268,275 could be reduced. This is a rumour only. Hargreaves Lansdown notes that similar rumours before the last Budget led some people to take tax-free cash early, and urges caution.
• Inheritance Tax reliefs for farms and family businesses. Grant Thornton reports that the Prime Minister is willing to “look again” at recent changes, but no decision has been announced.
• The personal allowance. Which? reports that the Prime Minister hinted at reviewing the personal allowance, without committing to a change.
• The High Value Council Tax Surcharge. Which? reports speculation that the planned surcharge threshold could fall from £2 million to £1.5 million.

What is not expected? Grant Thornton reports that rises in the main rates of income tax, National Insurance and VAT are not expected, because the Prime Minister has committed to Labour’s 2024 manifesto pledges. That is a report, not a guarantee.

What could the Budget mean for your pension and savings?

We will not know until 28 October. Acting on a rumour can cost more than the change you feared: taking pension cash early may mean paying tax you did not need to pay, or losing future growth.

A few steps are sensible whatever happens:

1. Check what you already hold in pensions and ISAs, and where.
2. If you are thinking about taking money out of your pension, get guidance first. Pension Wise, from MoneyHelper, offers free and impartial guidance if you are 50 or over with a defined contribution pension.
3. Talk to a regulated adviser before making a big decision. See how our pensions advice and investments advice work.

The value of pensions and investments can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you put in.

What does the Autumn Budget 2026 mean for employers?

Employers already pay more National Insurance than two years ago, and a salary sacrifice change is set for 2029.

• Employer National Insurance. HMRC confirms that employer (secondary Class 1) National Insurance is 15% for 2026 to 2027, with a Secondary Threshold of £5,000 a year and an Employment Allowance of up to £10,500. The Secondary Threshold is set at £5,000 until 5 April 2028.
• Salary sacrifice for pensions. GOV.UK confirms that from 6 April 2029, pension contributions made through salary sacrifice above £2,000 a year will be subject to both employee and employer National Insurance. They will still be free of Income Tax, within the usual limits.

What this means in practice:

• Review your salary sacrifice scheme now, so you know how many employees sacrifice more than £2,000 a year into their pension.
• Plan how you will explain the 2029 change to staff, so they do not stop saving into their pension out of confusion.

This is where an employee financial wellbeing programme earns its place. Our coaches and education sessions help employees understand what a Budget means for them, so HR teams are not left fielding every question.

What will Lifetime do on Budget day?

At Lifetime, we are keeping a close eye on the headlines and will be following the Budget announcements closely. As experts in the financial management space, we know how such uncertainties can affect people’s lives. We will publish a clear summary of what changed after 28 October.

Frequently asked questions

When is the Autumn Budget 2026?

The Autumn Budget 2026 is on Wednesday 28 October 2026. Chancellor John Healey confirmed the date on 31 July 2026. The Office for Budget Responsibility publishes its forecast the same day. The full measures will only be known once the Budget is delivered.

Will the tax-free pension lump sum be cut in the Autumn Budget 2026?

Nobody knows yet. Rathbones reports speculation about a cut to the £268,275 maximum, but the government has not announced one. Similar rumours circulated before the last Budget. Get guidance before acting, because taking pension cash early can create tax you did not need to pay.

Is employer National Insurance going up in the Autumn Budget 2026?

There is no announcement of a rise. Employer National Insurance is already 15% on earnings above £5,000 a year for 2026 to 2027, according to HMRC. Separately, salary sacrifice pension contributions above £2,000 a year will attract employer and employee National Insurance from 6 April 2029.

Should I make financial changes before the Budget?

Usually it is better to plan than to rush. Check what is already confirmed, avoid acting on rumours, and take guidance before any big pension or investment decision. MoneyHelper offers free, impartial guidance, and a regulated adviser can look at your personal situation.

Need support before or after the Budget?

If you are an individual, you can talk to our coaches, and then progress to speaking with an experienced and qualified financial adviser.

Book a chat now

If you are an employer or HR leader, our financial wellbeing benefit is an essential tool in your employee benefit offering, more so now than ever. Talk to us today and see how we can help look after the money concerns of your people.

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For free, impartial money guidance, you can also visit MoneyHelper.

The value of pensions and investments can go down as well as up, and you may get back less than you put in. This article is for general information only and is not personal financial advice. Tax rules can change and their effect depends on your circumstances.